Consistent with its stated mission of full disclosure, and to provide its clients and the industry at-large with periodic assessments of the accuracy of their forecasts, PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) recently published a whitepaper that quantifies the accuracy of their proprietary Hotel Horizons® reports. The assessment compares forecast changes in hotel market performance measures and actual changes at two critical points during the recent economic cycle (2007 – 2009).
“When we initially entered the econometric forecasting business over 10 years ago, we committed ourselves to a process of continuous self-evaluation. Overall, we remain pleased with our demonstrated accuracy. We have learned that our forecasts are extremely reliable during less volatile periods in the business cycle, but less accurate during turbulent times. These findings will be used to inform our ongoing forecasting efforts.” - Mark Woodworth, President, PKF Hospitality Research
PKF-HR’s Hotel Horizons® is a series of periodic hotel forecast reports that analyze the historical and expected performance of U.S. lodging markets. Driven by an econometric forecasting model, the Hotel Horizons® reports cover five years of supply, demand, occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR for 50 major U.S. markets, as well as six national chain-scale segments. Within each market forecast, separate estimates are prepared for upper-price and lower-price hotels. The model relies on historical lodging data from Smith Travel Research, as well as historic and forecast economic data from Moody’s Economy.com.